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Will the martial law case result in changes to South Korean military leadership by end of 2024?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official announcements from South Korean government or military
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Ex-South Korean Defense Minister Arrested for Insurrection Attempts Suicide Amid Martial Law Probe
Dec 11, 2024, 03:01 AM
On December 10, South Korean prosecutors detained former Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun, the central figure in the martial law case, on charges of insurrection and abuse of power related to the imposition of martial law on December 3. Kim is alleged to have recommended the brief declaration of martial law to President Yoon Suk Yeol last week. The Seoul Central District Court issued an arrest warrant for Kim, and authorities are investigating whether their actions amount to rebellion. Following his arrest, on December 11, Kim attempted suicide in his detention facility and has been transferred to a hospital where he is in stable condition. The investigation may intensify scrutiny on President Yoon, with potential implications for his presidency, including potential impeachment.
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Cabinet reshuffle • 25%
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No change in leadership • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Martial law lifted • 25%
Government transition • 25%
Martial law extended • 25%
Ongoing unrest • 25%
Other impact • 25%
Strengthens opposition • 25%
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No significant impact • 25%
Martial law upheld • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
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President Yoon remains in office • 25%
New President elected • 25%
Interim government established • 25%
