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Market
US Military Operation in Mexico by June 30, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official announcements from the US Department of Defense or Mexican government reports
Story
Trump Considers 'Soft Invasion' of Mexico to Combat Cartels, Sparks Debate
Dec 24, 2024, 01:06 PM
President-elect Donald Trump is reportedly considering a military intervention in Mexico, described as a 'soft invasion,' aimed at combating Mexican drug cartels. Discussions within Trump's transition team include the possibility of covert operations to assassinate cartel leaders, according to reports from Rolling Stone. The proposal has sparked debate in Mexico, with some advocating for international cooperation to address the violence, while others, including Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, emphasize Mexico's sovereignty and reject any form of subordination to the U.S. Trump's plan to designate Mexican cartels as terrorist organizations has further divided opinions in Mexico, with opposition parties urging for collaborative efforts, and the government asserting its independence.
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Similar markets
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Drone strikes • 25%
Cyber warfare • 25%
Special forces deployment • 25%
No action taken • 25%
Significant disruption of cartel operations • 25%
Minimal impact on cartel operations • 25%
No operations conducted • 25%
Operations lead to diplomatic tensions • 25%
Condemnation • 25%
Support • 25%
Neutral • 25%
Other • 25%
Airstrikes • 25%
Ground Troops • 25%
Naval Blockade • 25%
No Military Action • 25%