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Market
Will the U.S. deploy special forces in Mexico by June 30, 2025?
4
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official announcements from the U.S. Department of Defense or credible news outlets
Story
Trump Team Weighs 'Soft Invasion' of Mexico to Combat Cartels; Mexico Vows to Defend Sovereignty
Nov 28, 2024, 04:40 PM
President-elect Donald Trump's team is evaluating plans for a "soft invasion" of Mexico to combat drug cartels, according to reports by Rolling Stone and other media outlets. The proposed strategies include deploying special forces to kill or kidnap cartel leaders, conducting drone strikes, engaging in cyber warfare, and deploying undercover agents in Mexican territory. These ideas reflect an increasingly mainstream view among Trump administration officials and Republican lawmakers that the U.S. should take direct military action against Mexican cartels. Mexico's President Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo responded by asserting that Mexico will always defend its sovereignty, dismissing the plans as something out of "a movie."
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Similar markets
Significant disruption of cartel operations • 25%
Minimal impact on cartel operations • 25%
No operations conducted • 25%
Operations lead to diplomatic tensions • 25%
Drone strikes • 25%
Cyber warfare • 25%
Special forces deployment • 25%
No action taken • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
