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How many Ukrainian POWs will be released in the next exchange with Russia by June 30, 2025?
2
Russia•Ukraine•United Arab Emirates•Belarus•Mariupol•Azovstal steelworks•Kharkiv•Donetsk•Zaporizhzhia•Kherson•Ukrainian•Russian•Volodymyr Zelensky
Resolution / Starting Odds
Less than 25 • 25%
25-49 • 25%
50-74 • 25%
75 or more • 25%
Official announcements from the Ukrainian defense ministry
Story
Russia and Ukraine Exchange 25 POWs Each, Including Azovstal Defenders, in UAE-Mediated Swap
Jan 15, 2025, 01:24 PM
Russia and Ukraine have conducted the first prisoner exchange of 2025, each side releasing 25 prisoners of war, according to statements from both countries' defense ministries. The exchange, mediated by the United Arab Emirates, took place on the territory of Belarus. Among those returning to Ukraine are military personnel and civilians, including defenders from Mariupol and the Azovstal steelworks, as well as individuals from the Kharkiv, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions. Many of the Ukrainian returnees are reported to have serious injuries and illnesses, including amputations, gunshot wounds, tuberculosis, cancer, and gangrene. The Russian soldiers are currently in Belarus receiving medical care before being transported to Russia for further treatment and rehabilitation. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky expressed commitment to bringing all Ukrainians home, stating that Ukraine will not stop until all its people are returned.
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200-299 each side • 25%
100-199 each side • 25%
Less than 100 each side • 25%
300 or more each side • 25%
More than 25 each • 25%
Exactly 25 each • 25%
Less than 25 each • 25%
No exchange by deadline • 25%
100 to 199 • 25%
300 or more • 25%
200 to 299 • 25%
Less than 100 • 25%
More than 1000 • 25%
Less than 100 • 25%
100-500 • 25%
501-1000 • 25%
Azovstal defenders • 25%
Chornobyl Nuclear Power Plant personnel • 25%
Other units • 25%
Mariupol defenders • 25%
Three or more • 25%
One • 25%
Two • 25%
None • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
101 to 150 • 25%
50 to 100 • 25%
Less than 50 • 25%
More than 150 • 25%
Ongoing negotiations • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Successful exchange • 25%
Negotiations fail • 25%