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Status of Iran's nuclear capabilities by mid-2024
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Increased capabilities • 25%
Decreased capabilities • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Nuclear disarmament • 25%
IAEA reports or major global news outlets
Story
UK and French Intelligence Chiefs Warn of Iran's Nuclear Ambitions as Critical Global Security Threat
Nov 29, 2024, 05:00 PM
The heads of the UK and French foreign intelligence services, Richard Moore and Nicolas Lerner respectively, have expressed serious concerns about Iran's nuclear ambitions, describing them as a 'critical threat' to global security. Their statements were made during a joint appearance in Paris. Despite setbacks to Iran's allied militias, the nuclear threat persists. Both countries are actively working on strategies to mitigate this risk, with Lerner noting that the possible atomic proliferation in Iran is one of the most, if not the most, significant threats they face.
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Advanced • 25%
Stalled • 25%
Reduced • 25%
Unknown • 25%
Program significantly damaged or destroyed • 25%
Program remains operational but limited • 25%
Program remains fully operational • 25%
Program expanded • 25%
Operational • 25%
Dismantled • 25%
Under negotiation • 25%
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Policy remains unchanged • 25%
Policy explicitly altered • 25%
Increased nuclear enrichment • 25%
Nuclear weapon development initiated • 25%
Iran halts nuclear program • 25%
Iran accelerates nuclear program • 25%
Iran maintains current pace • 25%
Iran withdraws from NPT • 25%
Significantly reduced • 25%
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Research confirmed and halted • 25%
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Iran completes enrichment plans • 25%
Iran halts enrichment • 25%
Iran scales back enrichment • 25%
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Fully restored • 25%
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Unknown • 25%
Up to 5% purity • 25%
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10% to 20% purity • 25%
Above 20% purity • 25%
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No significant change • 25%
Nuclear disarmament • 25%
Iran withdraws from JCPOA • 25%
Iran agrees to new talks • 25%
Iran continues current path • 25%
Iran takes military action • 25%
Sanctions Imposed • 25%
Diplomatic Talks Initiated • 25%
Military Action Considered • 25%
No Significant Action • 25%