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What will be Iran's next significant diplomatic action regarding its nuclear program by end of 2024?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Iran withdraws from JCPOA • 25%
Iran agrees to new talks • 25%
Iran continues current path • 25%
Iran takes military action • 25%
Official announcements from Iranian government or international diplomatic sources
Story
Iran to Activate Large Number of Advanced Centrifuges for Uranium Enrichment in Response to IAEA Resolution
Nov 19, 2024, 03:35 PM
Iran has announced plans to activate a significant number of advanced centrifuges for uranium enrichment in response to a potential draft resolution by the three European countries involved in the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). This decision comes amid escalating tensions following a recent International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) resolution. The activation of these centrifuges will include plans to inject gas into them, marking a notable step in Iran's nuclear program as it reacts to perceived provocations from the West. Iran's commitment to advancing its nuclear capabilities underscores the ongoing complexities in its negotiations with Western powers.
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Policy remains unchanged • 25%
Policy explicitly altered • 25%
Increased nuclear enrichment • 25%
Nuclear weapon development initiated • 25%
Re-enter JCPOA • 25%
Impose new sanctions • 25%
Military action • 25%
No action • 25%
Expansion of nuclear program • 25%
Reduction of nuclear activities • 25%
No change • 25%
Full nuclear disarmament • 25%
Retaliation against U.S. interests • 25%
Public threat or warning • 25%
Diplomatic engagement or negotiation • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Increase in uranium enrichment • 25%
Diplomatic engagement with IAEA • 25%
Withdrawal from JCPOA • 25%
Other action • 25%
Sanctions • 25%
Diplomatic Talks • 25%
Military Action • 25%
No Major Action • 25%
Program significantly damaged or destroyed • 25%
Program remains operational but limited • 25%
Program remains fully operational • 25%
Program expanded • 25%
Operational • 25%
Dismantled • 25%
Under negotiation • 25%
Unknown • 25%
New expulsion request • 25%
Sanctions proposal • 25%
Human rights resolution • 25%
No further action • 25%
Policy Hardening • 25%
Policy Softening • 25%
No Change • 25%
Other • 25%
Increase in nuclear activities • 25%
Decrease in nuclear activities • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Nuclear disarmament • 25%
Military retaliation • 25%
Diplomatic measures • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Iran halts nuclear program • 25%
Iran accelerates nuclear program • 25%
Iran maintains current pace • 25%
Iran withdraws from NPT • 25%