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Market
South Korea grants asylum to defected North Korean diplomat and family by end of 2024?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official announcements from the South Korean government or credible news agencies
Story
Senior North Korean Diplomat Defects to South Korea from Cuba in November
Jul 16, 2024, 03:15 AM
A senior North Korean diplomat based in Cuba defected to South Korea in November, according to reports from Chosun Ilbo and the country's spy agency. This defection marks the highest-ranking North Korean diplomat to escape to the South since 2016. The diplomat fled with his wife and children, highlighting a significant development in the ongoing tensions between North and South Korea.
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Similar markets
Grant asylum • 25%
Detain for questioning • 25%
Return to North Korea • 25%
Other • 25%
Formal protest • 25%
Diplomatic talks • 25%
No official response • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
Increased military presence at the border • 25%
Diplomatic protest to South Korea • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Other • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Increase sanctions • 33%
Seek dialogue • 33%
No significant change • 34%
Increase military presence at the border • 25%
Issue a formal protest to South Korea • 25%
Make a public statement condemning defections • 25%
Other • 25%
