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Impact on North-South Korea relations by end of 2024?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Relations improve • 25%
Relations worsen • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other • 25%
Analysis from credible news agencies and official statements from both North and South Korea
Story
Senior North Korean Diplomat Defects to South Korea from Cuba in November
Jul 16, 2024, 03:15 AM
A senior North Korean diplomat based in Cuba defected to South Korea in November, according to reports from Chosun Ilbo and the country's spy agency. This defection marks the highest-ranking North Korean diplomat to escape to the South since 2016. The diplomat fled with his wife and children, highlighting a significant development in the ongoing tensions between North and South Korea.
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Deterioration of relations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Improvement in relations • 25%
Complete severance of relations • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Worsened relations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Formal peace talks initiated • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Status quo • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Formal peace talks • 25%
Strained relations with Russia • 33%
Improved relations with NATO countries • 33%
No significant change • 33%
Relations worsen • 25%
Relations improve • 25%
Relations remain unchanged • 25%
Other • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Status quo • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Severed relations • 25%
Diplomatic agreement reached • 25%
Continued military standoff • 25%
Escalation to conflict • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Military conflict • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Improved with China • 25%
Improved with Russia • 25%
Improved with both • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Relations improve • 25%
Relations remain the same • 25%
Relations worsen • 25%
Formal diplomatic talks initiated • 25%
Increase sanctions • 33%
Seek dialogue • 33%
No significant change • 34%