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Significant policy shifts in Iran within six months of new leadership?
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Iranian•Ebrahim Raisi•Hossein Amirabdollahian•Iran•East Azerbaijan•Varzaqan•Jolfa•Raisi•Ayatollah Ali Khamenei
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Analysis from major international policy research organizations
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Iranian President Raisi and Foreign Minister Dead in East Azerbaijan Helicopter Crash on Sunday
May 20, 2024, 05:36 AM
Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian have died in a helicopter crash in the mountainous northwest region of Iran. The incident occurred on Sunday in East Azerbaijan province, specifically in the Varzaqan region near Jolfa, amid heavy fog and poor weather conditions. The crash prompted a massive search-and-rescue operation, but all passengers on board, including other officials, were found dead. State media confirmed the deaths on Monday morning, and the wreckage, which was completely burned out, was located after an overnight search. Raisi, 63, was a hardliner and potential successor to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
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Major shift • 50%
No major shift • 50%
Significant shift in foreign policy • 50%
No significant shift in foreign policy • 50%
More Aggressive • 33%
Status Quo • 33%
More Diplomatic • 34%
More aggressive posture • 33%
More conciliatory approach • 34%
No significant change • 33%
Increase in domestic security measures • 25%
Shift in foreign policy stance • 25%
No significant policy changes • 25%
Restructuring of governmental or military personnel • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Unchanged relations • 25%
Worsened relations • 25%
Isolation • 25%
More aggressive posture • 33%
Maintain current trajectory • 34%
Shift towards diplomacy and negotiation • 33%
No Change • 33%
New President • 33%
New Vice President • 33%
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No • 50%
Supportive statements • 25%
Neutral statements • 25%
Critical statements • 25%
No official response • 25%