Loading...
Market
Significant shift in Iran's foreign policy within 6 months post-incident?
4
Resolution / Starting Odds
Significant shift in foreign policy • 50%
No significant shift in foreign policy • 50%
Analysis from credible international relations experts or official statements
Story
Iranian President Raisi and Foreign Minister Killed in Helicopter Crash in East Azerbaijan on Sunday
May 20, 2024, 05:54 AM
Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian have been confirmed dead following a helicopter crash in East Azerbaijan province on Sunday. The crash occurred near Jolfa, a city bordering Azerbaijan, approximately 600 kilometers northwest of Tehran, in a mountainous and foggy region. All passengers on board, including other officials, also perished. The helicopter was reportedly completely burnt out. State media confirmed that rescuers found the wreckage and the bodies of the deceased. Raisi, a hardliner and potential successor to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was 63 years old. The crash was attributed to bad weather conditions.
View original story
Similar markets
Major shift • 50%
No major shift • 50%
More aggressive posture • 33%
More conciliatory approach • 34%
No significant change • 33%
Improved Relations • 33%
Unchanged Relations • 33%
Worsened Relations • 33%
Increased isolation • 33%
Strengthened alliances • 33%
No significant change • 34%
Improved relations • 25%
Unchanged relations • 25%
Worsened relations • 25%
Isolation • 25%
More Aggressive • 33%
Status Quo • 33%
More Diplomatic • 34%
Increase in domestic security measures • 25%
Shift in foreign policy stance • 25%
No significant policy changes • 25%
Restructuring of governmental or military personnel • 25%
More aggressive posture • 33%
Maintain current trajectory • 34%
Shift towards diplomacy and negotiation • 33%
Increase in political stability • 33%
Decrease in political stability • 33%
No significant change • 33%
Improved relations • 33%
Unchanged relations • 33%
Worsened relations • 34%
Increase in public support • 33%
Decrease in public support • 33%
No significant change • 34%