Loading...
Market
Significant improvement in U.S.-China relations by mid-2025?
2
United States•Americans•Kai Li•John Leung•Chinese•Biden•White House•State Department•China•Thanksgiving
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Reports from major news outlets such as CNN, BBC, or official government announcements indicating improved relations
Story
U.S. Frees Swidan, Li, Leung in Prisoner Swap with China
Nov 27, 2024, 02:37 PM
On Wednesday, the United States secured the release of three Americans imprisoned in China—Mark Swidan, Kai Li, and John Leung—through a prisoner exchange involving three unidentified Chinese citizens held in U.S. custody. The Biden administration brokered the deal following years of intensive diplomatic efforts between White House and State Department officials and their Chinese counterparts. All three Americans had been designated by the U.S. government as wrongfully detained, and their release means that all Americans wrongfully held in China are now free. The exchange comes ahead of Thanksgiving and marks a significant development in U.S.-China relations.
View original story
Similar markets
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Improved relations • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Status quo • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Other • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other • 25%
Improved Relations • 25%
Worsened Relations • 25%
Status Quo Maintained • 25%
New Diplomatic Conflict • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Status quo • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Severe trade conflict • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Other • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
New trade agreement • 25%