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Market
Primary US Method Against Mexican Cartels by End of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Military Intervention • 25%
Covert Operations • 25%
Diplomatic Efforts • 25%
Economic Sanctions • 25%
Official US government policy announcements or military actions
Story
Trump Considers 'Soft Invasion' of Mexico to Combat Cartels, Sparks Debate
Dec 24, 2024, 01:06 PM
President-elect Donald Trump is reportedly considering a military intervention in Mexico, described as a 'soft invasion,' aimed at combating Mexican drug cartels. Discussions within Trump's transition team include the possibility of covert operations to assassinate cartel leaders, according to reports from Rolling Stone. The proposal has sparked debate in Mexico, with some advocating for international cooperation to address the violence, while others, including Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, emphasize Mexico's sovereignty and reject any form of subordination to the U.S. Trump's plan to designate Mexican cartels as terrorist organizations has further divided opinions in Mexico, with opposition parties urging for collaborative efforts, and the government asserting its independence.
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Deterioration of relations • 25%
Unchanged cooperation • 25%
Decreased cooperation • 25%
Increased cooperation • 25%
Naval Blockade • 25%
Airstrikes • 25%
Ground Troops • 25%
No Military Action • 25%
Stricter border controls • 25%
Increased military operations • 25%
Other • 25%
Enhanced international cooperation • 25%
Opposition to U.S. initiatives • 25%
No cooperation with U.S. initiatives • 25%
Partial cooperation with U.S. initiatives • 25%
Full cooperation with U.S. initiatives • 25%
Homeland Security Secretary • 25%
Other official • 25%
Attorney General • 25%
Secretary of State • 25%
No change in cooperation • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Increased cooperation • 25%
Decreased cooperation • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Military • 25%
Federal Police • 25%
Joint Operation • 25%
Local Police • 25%
No change • 25%
List dissolved • 25%
Decrease in number of targets • 25%
Increase in number of targets • 25%