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Primary source of conflict in Syria by December 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Internal Rebel Conflicts • 25%
Foreign Military Interventions • 25%
Ethnic or Sectarian Violence • 25%
Economic Strife • 25%
Analysis and reports from reputable news agencies and conflict monitoring organizations
Story
HTS Rebels Overthrow Assad's 24-Year Rule, Free Prisoners in Damascus
Dec 8, 2024, 06:25 AM
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's government has fallen, with opposition group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) announcing on state TV that they have taken control of the capital, Damascus. Reports confirm that Assad has fled the city on a plane to an undisclosed location. The rebels have entered the presidential palace, and heavy gunfire was reported as they advanced. The fall of Assad's 24-year regime marks a significant shift in the Syrian conflict, impacting allies like Russia and Iran, and raising concerns about the future stability of the nation. HTS has also released all prisoners, signaling a major change in the country's political landscape.
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Territorial control • 25%
Resource access • 25%
Ethnic tensions • 25%
Other • 25%
Internal political conflict • 25%
External military intervention • 25%
Economic collapse • 25%
Other • 25%
Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
Regime Change • 25%
Continued Conflict • 25%
Other • 25%
ISIS • 25%
Assad regime forces • 25%
Russian military • 25%
Kurdish forces • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Government gains significant ground • 25%
Rebels gain significant ground • 25%
Peace agreement reached • 25%
Peace Agreement • 25%
Ongoing Conflict • 25%
Partition of Syria • 25%
Other • 25%
Increase in terrorist activity • 25%
New government formation • 25%
Increased foreign intervention • 25%
Other • 25%
Assad Regime Victory • 25%
Rebel Victory • 25%
Stalemate/Status Quo • 25%
Peace Agreement • 25%
Increased sanctions • 25%
Military intervention • 25%
Humanitarian aid increase • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham • 25%
Syrian Democratic Forces • 25%
New Syrian Government • 25%
Other • 25%
Rebel forces • 25%
Syrian government • 25%
ISIS or other extremist groups • 25%
No clear dominant power • 25%
Russia • 25%
United States • 25%
United Nations • 25%
Other • 25%
Increased support for Assad regime • 25%
Increased opposition to Assad regime • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Other political shifts • 25%