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What will be the outcome for Russian military bases in Syria by end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Bases maintained at current levels • 25%
Bases expanded • 25%
Bases reduced • 25%
Bases completely withdrawn • 25%
Official announcements from the Russian government or credible news reports on the status of the bases
Story
Putin Considers Future of Russian Air Base and Naval Facility in Syria Amid New Authorities
Dec 19, 2024, 11:06 AM
Russian President Vladimir Putin has indicated that the future of Russian military bases in Syria, including an air base and a naval facility, will depend on the alignment of interests with the new Syrian authorities. Putin mentioned that Russia maintains relations with all political forces in Syria and with countries in the region, and that the majority of these groups have expressed interest in the continued presence of Russian military bases. However, Putin also stated that Russia needs to consider whether to keep these bases. This comes as Putin expressed hopes for peace and calm in Syria following the ouster of Bashar al-Assad, while noting that Moscow remains in contact with the current Syrian leadership.
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Remain unchanged • 25%
Expanded • 25%
Reduced • 25%
Closed • 25%
Permanent presence • 25%
Temporary presence • 25%
Complete withdrawal • 25%
Other • 25%
Increased presence • 25%
Maintained presence • 25%
Reduced presence • 25%
Complete withdrawal • 25%
Fully operational • 25%
Partially operational • 25%
Under threat • 25%
Evacuated • 25%
Controlled by Syria • 25%
Controlled by HTS • 25%
Controlled by other rebel groups • 25%
Abandoned • 25%
Operational and unchanged • 25%
Reduced operations • 25%
Expanded operations • 25%
Closed • 25%
Russia retains both bases • 25%
Russia retains only Hmeimim • 25%
Russia retains only Tartus • 25%
Russia loses both bases • 25%
Maintain presence at both bases • 25%
Withdraw from both bases • 25%
Maintain presence at one base • 25%
Other • 25%
Full retention of both bases • 25%
Retention of only one base • 25%
Loss of both bases • 25%
Indefinite negotiations • 25%
Complete withdrawal • 25%
Maintained current presence • 25%
Other • 25%
Reduced presence • 25%
Unchanged presence • 25%
Increased presence • 25%
Complete withdrawal • 25%
Partial withdrawal • 25%
Reinforcement • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Increased Russian Control • 25%
Status Quo Maintained • 25%
Increased Rebel Control • 25%
International Intervention • 25%