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Primary form of opposition against Maduro's government by mid-2025?
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Nicolás Maduro•National Assembly•Caracas•Edmundo González Urrutia•Maduro•United States•European Union•United Kingdom
Resolution / Starting Odds
Street protests • 25%
Political negotiations • 25%
International sanctions • 25%
Armed conflict • 25%
Reports from credible news outlets and international observers
Story
Venezuela's Maduro Sworn In for Third Term as Opposition Decries 'Coup d'etat'
Jan 10, 2025, 04:00 PM
Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro was sworn in before the National Assembly on Friday for a third six-year term, extending his rule until 2031 despite widespread protests and allegations of election fraud. Thousands took to the streets on the eve of the inauguration in Caracas, denouncing the July 28, 2024 election as fraudulent. Opposition leader Edmundo González Urrutia and other critics accuse Maduro of refusing to release official election results and have labeled his inauguration a 'coup d'etat.' Maduro, who has been in power since 2013, faces increasing isolation as countries like the United States, European Union, and the United Kingdom have rejected the election outcome and imposed sanctions against his government. Despite international condemnation and domestic unrest, Maduro pledged that his new term will be a period of peace and democracy.
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Protests lead to policy changes • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Protests are suppressed without major outcomes • 25%
Protests result in significant international sanctions • 25%
Other • 25%
Edmundo González • 25%
María Corina Machado • 25%
Leopoldo López • 25%
Protests lead to policy changes • 25%
Protests subside with no change • 25%
Protests escalate into conflict • 25%
Protests lead to leadership change • 25%
María Corina Machado • 25%
Other • 25%
Henrique Capriles • 25%
Edmundo González • 25%
Other • 25%
Leopoldo López • 25%
María Corina Machado • 25%
Edmundo González Urrutia • 25%
Status quo remains • 25%
Opposition calls for new elections • 25%
Opposition forms government-in-exile • 25%
Edmundo González returns and is sworn in • 25%
Protests dissipate without significant change • 25%
Protests lead to negotiations • 25%
Other significant outcome • 25%
Protests lead to increased government crackdown • 25%
Protests decrease • 25%
Protests end • 25%
Protests increase • 25%
Protests remain steady • 25%
Edmundo González assumes full control • 25%
Power-sharing agreement • 25%
New leadership emerges • 25%
Nicolás Maduro remains in power • 25%
United Nations • 25%
Organization of American States • 25%
Other organization • 25%
European Union • 25%
Another opposition leader takes over • 25%
Edmundo González takes over • 25%
Nicolás Maduro remains • 25%
Military or interim government • 25%
Opposition gains significant political concessions • 25%
Other • 25%
Maduro remains in power • 25%
New elections announced • 25%