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Primary economic impact of IMF program on El Salvador by end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Increased GDP growth • 25%
Reduced inflation • 25%
Improved fiscal balance • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Economic reports from the IMF, World Bank, or El Salvador's government
Story
IMF Reaches $1.4 Billion Agreement with El Salvador on 40-Month Program, Bitcoin Risk Mitigation
Dec 18, 2024, 08:28 PM
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has reached a staff-level agreement with the government of El Salvador on a 40-month Extended Fund Facility (EFF) arrangement aimed at supporting the country's economic reforms. This agreement, which is subject to approval by the IMF Executive Board, comes after four years of negotiations that were complicated by El Salvador's adoption of Bitcoin as legal tender. As part of the $1.4 billion program, the IMF has emphasized that the acceptance of Bitcoin by the private sector will be voluntary, and public sector involvement in Bitcoin-related activities will be limited.
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Increased GDP growth • 25%
Reduced inflation • 25%
Debt reduction • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Increased lending • 25%
Decreased lending • 25%
No change • 25%
Uncertain outcome • 25%
Significant positive impact • 25%
Moderate positive impact • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Negative impact • 25%
Loan secured with Bitcoin policy change • 25%
Loan secured without Bitcoin policy change • 25%
Loan not secured • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Debt repayment • 25%
Infrastructure projects • 25%
Social programs • 25%
Other • 25%
Successful fiscal health improvement • 25%
Partial improvement • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Deterioration • 25%
Growth above 5% • 25%
Growth between 2% and 5% • 25%
Growth between 0% and 2% • 25%
Economic contraction • 25%
Increase of 1% or more • 25%
Increase less than 1% • 25%
No change • 25%
Decrease • 25%
Reducing public debt • 25%
Increasing foreign investment • 25%
Enhancing social welfare programs • 25%
Other • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%