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What will be the economic impact of the $3.5 billion financing package on El Salvador by December 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Significant positive impact • 25%
Moderate positive impact • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Negative impact • 25%
Economic performance reports and analyses from international financial institutions
Story
El Salvador Secures $1.4 Billion IMF Loan, Agrees to $3.5 Billion Financing Package and Chivo Wallet Discontinuation
Dec 19, 2024, 01:39 PM
El Salvador has reached a staff-level agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for a $1.4 billion loan, part of a broader $3.5 billion financing package aimed at supporting the country’s economic reforms. This agreement, which follows four years of negotiations, includes significant changes to El Salvador's Bitcoin policies. The government has agreed to make the acceptance of Bitcoin voluntary for private sector businesses and to limit public sector involvement in Bitcoin-related activities. Additionally, the Chivo wallet, the government's Bitcoin wallet, is set to be sold or discontinued. The deal is subject to approval by the IMF Executive Board and is intended to help stabilize the country's economy and address its debt-to-GDP ratio.
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Reduced inflation • 25%
Debt reduction • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Increased GDP growth • 25%
More than $3 billion • 25%
Less than $1 billion • 25%
$1-2 billion • 25%
$2-3 billion • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Increased GDP growth • 25%
Reduced inflation • 25%
Improved fiscal balance • 25%
Uncertain outcome • 25%
Decreased lending • 25%
Increased lending • 25%
No change • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Successful fiscal health improvement • 25%
Partial improvement • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Deterioration • 25%
Loan secured without Bitcoin policy change • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Loan secured with Bitcoin policy change • 25%
Loan not secured • 25%
Economic contraction • 25%
Growth above 5% • 25%
Growth between 2% and 5% • 25%
Growth between 0% and 2% • 25%