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How will El Salvador's GDP growth rate change by the end of 2025 following the IMF deal?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Increase of 1% or more • 25%
Increase less than 1% • 25%
No change • 25%
Decrease • 25%
World Bank or IMF economic reports
Story
El Salvador Agrees to Voluntary Bitcoin Acceptance for $1.3B IMF Deal
Dec 9, 2024, 12:35 PM
El Salvador is set to scale back its pioneering use of Bitcoin as legal tender in order to secure a $1.3 billion loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The country expects to finalize the deal within the next two to three weeks by agreeing to make Bitcoin acceptance voluntary for businesses, instead of mandatory. This move is part of the conditions set by the IMF to unlock additional international lending for El Salvador.
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Growth above 5% • 25%
Growth between 2% and 5% • 25%
Growth between 0% and 2% • 25%
Economic contraction • 25%
Below 1% • 25%
1% to 3% • 25%
3% to 5% • 25%
Above 5% • 25%
Inflation rate above 10% • 25%
Inflation rate between 5% and 10% • 25%
Inflation rate between 1% and 5% • 25%
Deflation or 0% inflation • 25%
Less than 2% • 25%
Between 2% and 4% • 25%
Between 4% and 6% • 25%
More than 6% • 25%
Increased GDP growth • 25%
Reduced inflation • 25%
Debt reduction • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Increased lending • 25%
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No change • 25%
Uncertain outcome • 25%
Less than 3% • 25%
3% to 5% • 25%
5% to 7% • 25%
More than 7% • 25%
Loan secured with Bitcoin policy change • 25%
Loan secured without Bitcoin policy change • 25%
Loan not secured • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Significant increase (>5%) • 25%
Moderate increase (2-5%) • 25%
Little to no change (0-2%) • 25%
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