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What will be the outcome of El Salvador's negotiations with the IMF by March 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Loan secured with Bitcoin policy change • 25%
Loan secured without Bitcoin policy change • 25%
Loan not secured • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Official announcements from El Salvador's government or IMF
Story
El Salvador to Make Bitcoin Voluntary to Secure $1.3B IMF Loan in Weeks
Dec 9, 2024, 02:17 PM
El Salvador is set to scale back its ambitious Bitcoin policies to secure a $1.3 billion loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The government plans to make Bitcoin acceptance voluntary for businesses, instead of mandatory, as part of the agreement. This policy adjustment aims to unlock additional international lending and finalize the loan deal within two to three weeks. The decision marks a significant shift in El Salvador's pioneering use of Bitcoin as legal tender, which was introduced in 2021 under President Nayib Bukele's administration. The IMF had previously expressed concerns over the risks associated with Bitcoin's mandatory acceptance, prompting the country to revise its stance.
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Increased GDP growth • 25%
Reduced inflation • 25%
Debt reduction • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Successful fiscal health improvement • 25%
Partial improvement • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Deterioration • 25%
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No • 50%
Yes • 50%
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