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Primary challenge for Starship upper stage failures identified by June 2025
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Communication system failure • 25%
Structural integrity issue • 25%
Propulsion system failure • 25%
Other technical challenge • 25%
Official SpaceX statements or major space news reports
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SpaceX's Starship Flight 7: Second Booster Catch Success but Upper Stage Lost During Ascent
Jan 16, 2025, 11:11 PM
SpaceX launched its seventh Starship test flight from Starbase, Texas, on Thursday at 4:37 p.m. CST. The mission aimed to deploy ten Starlink satellite simulators in space. The company successfully caught the Super Heavy booster back at the launch pad using the Mechazilla tower's 'chopsticks' for the second time. However, the Starship upper stage was lost during ascent after communication with the spacecraft was lost approximately eight minutes into the flight. Debris from the disintegrated spacecraft was observed re-entering over the Caribbean near the Turks and Caicos Islands. SpaceX confirmed that the Starship experienced a 'rapid unscheduled disassembly' during its ascent burn. "Teams will continue to review data from today's flight test to better understand root cause," SpaceX stated.
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Design flaw identified • 25%
Other cause identified • 25%
Operational error identified • 25%
Manufacturing defect identified • 25%
Structural failure • 25%
Human error • 25%
Other • 25%
Software malfunction • 25%
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Software malfunction • 25%
Structural issue • 25%
Engine failure • 25%
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Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Manufacturing Defect • 25%
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Design Flaw • 25%
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Software malfunction • 25%
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Fuel leak • 25%
Fuel leak identified as cause • 25%
Software malfunction identified as cause • 25%
Structural failure identified as cause • 25%
Other cause identified • 25%
Other • 25%
Flight 8 launch • 25%
Program pause • 25%
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Successful orbital flight • 25%
Successful landing • 25%
Manned flight • 25%