Other milestone • 25%

Mars mission launch • 25%

Manned mission launch • 25%

Moon mission launch • 25%

Other • 25%

Program pause • 25%

Design overhaul • 25%

Flight 8 launch • 25%

Successful re-entry • 25%

First manned flight • 25%

Other • 25%

First commercial payload delivery • 25%

Further design iterations • 25%

First crewed test flight • 25%

Lunar mission preparation • 25%

Mars mission preparation • 25%

Successful Starship upper stage flight • 25%

Other milestone • 25%

New booster recovery record • 25%

Successful payload delivery to orbit • 25%

Other milestone • 25%

First commercial moon landing • 25%

First crewed Mars mission • 25%

Starship reaches orbit • 25%

Successful orbital flight • 25%

Successful booster catch • 25%

Successful upper stage recovery • 25%

Successful payload deployment • 25%

Starship Orbital Launch • 25%

Other • 25%

Starlink Global Coverage • 25%

Mars Mission Launch • 25%

Moon • 25%

Low Earth Orbit • 25%

Other destination • 25%

Mars • 25%

Other • 25%

First manned Mars mission • 25%

First commercial moon landing • 25%

First orbital Starship flight • 25%

First commercial lunar landing • 25%

Other • 25%

Starlink global coverage • 25%

Starship successful orbital flight • 25%

Failure • 34%

Successful launch • 33%

Partial success • 33%