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Successful upper stage recovery in a Starship flight by end of 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official SpaceX announcements and mission reports
Story
SpaceX's Starship Flight 7: Second Booster Catch Success but Upper Stage Lost During Ascent
Jan 16, 2025, 11:11 PM
SpaceX launched its seventh Starship test flight from Starbase, Texas, on Thursday at 4:37 p.m. CST. The mission aimed to deploy ten Starlink satellite simulators in space. The company successfully caught the Super Heavy booster back at the launch pad using the Mechazilla tower's 'chopsticks' for the second time. However, the Starship upper stage was lost during ascent after communication with the spacecraft was lost approximately eight minutes into the flight. Debris from the disintegrated spacecraft was observed re-entering over the Caribbean near the Turks and Caicos Islands. SpaceX confirmed that the Starship experienced a 'rapid unscheduled disassembly' during its ascent burn. "Teams will continue to review data from today's flight test to better understand root cause," SpaceX stated.
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Similar markets
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Successful re-entry • 25%
Other • 25%
First commercial payload delivery • 25%
First manned flight • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Other outcome • 25%
Successful launch and landing • 25%
Successful launch, failed landing • 25%
Launch failure • 25%
Partial success • 33%
Successful launch • 33%
Failure • 34%
Successful launch and landing • 25%
Successful launch, but partial failure • 25%
Explosion during launch • 25%
Explosion during flight • 25%
11-15 • 25%
6-10 • 25%
1-5 • 25%
16 or more • 25%