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Primary Cause of Ursa Major Explosions by December 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Explosive Devices • 25%
Accidental Fire • 25%
Sabotage • 25%
Other • 25%
Final report from the leading investigative body
Story
Russian Bulk Carrier Ursa Major Sinks Off Spanish Coast After Explosions; Owner Claims Terrorist Attack
Dec 25, 2024, 04:23 PM
The Russian bulk carrier Ursa Major has sunk in the Mediterranean Sea following what its owner describes as a "terrorist attack," according to multiple reports. Oboronlogistika, the state-owned company affiliated with Russia's Defense Ministry, stated that three sequential explosions occurred on the starboard side near the stern, leading to the vessel's sinking. The incident reportedly took place on December 23 in international waters off the Spanish coast. The Ursa Major was reportedly on the U.S. sanctions list.
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Mechanical failure • 25%
External attack • 25%
Human error • 25%
Unknown/Other • 25%
Engine malfunction • 25%
External attack • 25%
Accidental explosion of cargo • 25%
Other • 25%
Mechanical failure • 25%
Sabotage • 25%
Accidental fire • 25%
Other • 25%
Mechanical Failure • 25%
Human Error • 25%
Sabotage • 25%
Other • 25%
No foul play • 25%
Foul play confirmed • 25%
Inconclusive • 25%
Other • 25%
Mechanical failure • 25%
Sabotage or attack • 25%
Human error • 25%
Other • 25%
Internal malfunction • 25%
Terrorist group • 25%
State actor • 25%
Unknown • 25%
Russia • 25%
Spain • 25%
International Maritime Organization • 25%
Other • 25%