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Cause of Ursa Major explosion determined by Mar 31, 2025?
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Russian•Ursa Major•Mediterranean Sea•Spain•Algeria•Spanish•Cartagena•Oboronlogistics•Vladivostok•Russian military•US•Syria
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
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Official report or statement from the investigation authorities
Story
Russian Cargo Ship Ursa Major Sinks After Explosion; Two Crew Missing
Dec 24, 2024, 09:47 AM
Russian cargo ship Ursa Major sank in the Mediterranean Sea on December 24 after an explosion in its engine room, Russian authorities confirmed. The incident occurred in international waters between Spain and Algeria. Fourteen of the sixteen crew members were rescued and transported to the Spanish port of Cartagena, while two remain missing. The Ursa Major, owned by Oboronlogistics—a company linked to the Russian Defense Ministry—was reportedly transporting port cranes and 45-ton hatch covers for new icebreakers to Vladivostok. The vessel, the largest cargo ship in the Russian military's logistics fleet, had been under US sanctions since 2022 due to its role in supplying weapons to Russian forces in Syria. An investigation into the cause of the explosion is underway.
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Engine malfunction • 25%
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Accidental explosion of cargo • 25%
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Mechanical Failure • 25%
Human Error • 25%
Sabotage • 25%
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External attack • 25%
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Human error • 25%
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International body • 25%
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Algeria • 25%
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