Loading...
Market
Outcome of Ursa Major explosion investigation by Jun 30, 2025?
2
Russian•Ursa Major•Mediterranean Sea•Spain•Algeria•Spanish•Cartagena•Oboronlogistics•Vladivostok•Russian military•US•Syria
Resolution / Starting Odds
No foul play • 25%
Foul play confirmed • 25%
Inconclusive • 25%
Other • 25%
Official report or statement from the investigation authorities
Story
Russian Cargo Ship Ursa Major Sinks After Explosion; Two Crew Missing
Dec 24, 2024, 09:47 AM
Russian cargo ship Ursa Major sank in the Mediterranean Sea on December 24 after an explosion in its engine room, Russian authorities confirmed. The incident occurred in international waters between Spain and Algeria. Fourteen of the sixteen crew members were rescued and transported to the Spanish port of Cartagena, while two remain missing. The Ursa Major, owned by Oboronlogistics—a company linked to the Russian Defense Ministry—was reportedly transporting port cranes and 45-ton hatch covers for new icebreakers to Vladivostok. The vessel, the largest cargo ship in the Russian military's logistics fleet, had been under US sanctions since 2022 due to its role in supplying weapons to Russian forces in Syria. An investigation into the cause of the explosion is underway.
View original story
Similar markets
Mechanical Failure • 25%
Human Error • 25%
Sabotage • 25%
Other • 25%
Mechanical failure • 25%
External attack • 25%
Human error • 25%
Unknown/Other • 25%
Engine malfunction • 25%
External attack • 25%
Accidental explosion of cargo • 25%
Other • 25%
Russia • 25%
Spain • 25%
Algeria • 25%
Joint international effort • 25%
Mechanical failure • 25%
Sabotage or attack • 25%
Human error • 25%
Other • 25%
Spain • 25%
Russia • 25%
International coalition • 25%
Other • 25%
Suspects convicted • 25%
Suspects acquitted • 25%
Case unresolved • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Design Flaw • 25%
Manufacturing Error • 25%
Operational Error • 25%
Other • 25%
Gang-related charges • 25%
Criminal organization charges • 25%
No charges • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%