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Primary cause of Ursa Major explosion by June 30, 2025?
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Russian•Ursa Major•Mediterranean Sea•Spain•Algeria•Syria•Russia•Liebherr•Vladivostok•Spanish•Oboronlogistics•Tartus
Resolution / Starting Odds
Mechanical failure • 25%
External attack • 25%
Human error • 25%
Unknown/Other • 25%
Official investigation reports or news releases
Story
Russian Cargo Ship Ursa Major Carrying Military Equipment Sinks Near Spain; 2 Crew Missing
Dec 24, 2024, 07:18 AM
Russian cargo ship Ursa Major sank in the Mediterranean Sea between Spain and Algeria after an explosion in the engine room on December 24, 2024. The ship was reportedly used to transport weapons and equipment from Syria as part of Russia's evacuation of military assets from the region. The cargo included two 45-ton hatches for a nuclear reactor of an icebreaker and two Liebherr port cranes destined for Vladivostok. Fourteen out of sixteen crew members were rescued by Spanish authorities, while two remain missing. The ship, owned by Oboronlogistics and sanctioned by the U.S. in May 2022, was previously seen at the Tartus naval base in Syria.
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Engine malfunction • 25%
External attack • 25%
Accidental explosion of cargo • 25%
Other • 25%
Mechanical Failure • 25%
Human Error • 25%
Sabotage • 25%
Other • 25%
Mechanical failure • 25%
Sabotage • 25%
Accidental fire • 25%
Other • 25%
No foul play • 25%
Foul play confirmed • 25%
Inconclusive • 25%
Other • 25%
Mechanical failure • 25%
Sabotage or attack • 25%
Human error • 25%
Other • 25%
Russia • 25%
Spain • 25%
International Maritime Organization • 25%
Other • 25%
Design Flaw • 25%
Manufacturing Error • 25%
Operational Error • 25%
Other • 25%