Loading...
Market
International investigation into Ursa Major sinking by March 31, 2025?
3
Russian•Ursa Major•Mediterranean Sea•Spain•Algeria•Syria•Russia•Liebherr•Vladivostok•Spanish•Oboronlogistics•Tartus
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official statements from international organizations or governments involved
Story
Russian Cargo Ship Ursa Major Carrying Military Equipment Sinks Near Spain; 2 Crew Missing
Dec 24, 2024, 07:18 AM
Russian cargo ship Ursa Major sank in the Mediterranean Sea between Spain and Algeria after an explosion in the engine room on December 24, 2024. The ship was reportedly used to transport weapons and equipment from Syria as part of Russia's evacuation of military assets from the region. The cargo included two 45-ton hatches for a nuclear reactor of an icebreaker and two Liebherr port cranes destined for Vladivostok. Fourteen out of sixteen crew members were rescued by Spanish authorities, while two remain missing. The ship, owned by Oboronlogistics and sanctioned by the U.S. in May 2022, was previously seen at the Tartus naval base in Syria.
View original story
Similar markets
Terrorist act confirmed • 25%
Accident confirmed • 25%
Sabotage by foreign entity • 25%
Inconclusive • 25%
Increased Sanctions on Russia • 25%
Formal Investigation by International Maritime Organization • 25%
No Significant Action • 25%
Other • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Unintentional miscommunication • 25%
Deliberate provocation • 25%
Technical malfunction • 25%
Inconclusive • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Negligence by crew • 25%
Natural causes • 25%
Mechanical failure • 25%
Other • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Confirmed terrorist attack • 25%
Accidental explosion • 25%
Sabotage by unknown actors • 25%
Inconclusive findings • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
No wrongdoing found • 25%
Minor violations found • 25%
Major violations found • 25%
Criminal charges recommended • 25%