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Market
Popular Vote Winner in Key Swing States 2024
5
Donald Trump•Joe Biden•The Economist•Trump•Biden•Decision Desk HQ•Iowa•Kennedy•Stein•Oliver•Arizona•Florida•Georgia•Michigan•North Carolina•Pennsylvania
Resolution / Starting Odds
Donald Trump • 33%
Joe Biden • 33%
Other Candidate • 34%
Official election results from the Federal Election Commission
Story
Trump Leads Biden by 18 Points in Iowa, Dominates 2024 Presidential Polls
Jun 17, 2024, 01:35 PM
Recent polling data indicates a significant lead for Donald Trump over Joe Biden in the 2024 presidential race. According to The Economist, Trump has a 69% chance of winning the presidency, compared to Biden's 31%. Decision Desk HQ also shows Trump leading with a 56% chance to Biden's 44%. In Iowa, a Des Moines Register/Ann Selzer poll shows Trump leading Biden by 18 points, with Trump at 50%, Biden at 32%, Kennedy at 9%, and Stein and Oliver at 2% each. This marks a substantial increase from Trump's 8-point lead in the 2020 election. Biden's approval rating in Iowa is notably low at 28%. Trump also leads in several key swing states, including Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. In Arizona, Trump holds a 6-point lead over Biden, while in Florida, he leads by 6 points. In Georgia, Trump is ahead by 5 points, and in Pennsylvania, he leads by 2 points.
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Donald Trump • 25%
Kamala Harris • 25%
Tie • 25%
Other • 25%
Donald Trump • 25%
Kamala Harris • 25%
Tie • 25%
Other candidate • 25%
Biden wins Pennsylvania • 17%
Biden wins Michigan • 17%
Trump wins Michigan • 17%
Biden wins Wisconsin • 17%
Trump wins Wisconsin • 17%
Harris wins Florida • 25%
Trump wins Florida • 25%
Harris wins Pennsylvania • 25%
Trump wins Pennsylvania • 25%
Kamala Harris wins majority of swing states • 25%
Donald Trump wins majority of swing states • 25%
Split evenly • 25%
Other candidate wins majority • 25%
Kamala Harris • 25%
Donald Trump • 25%
Other Democratic Candidate • 25%
Other Republican Candidate • 25%
Donald Trump • 25%
Joe Biden • 25%
Kamala Harris • 25%
Nikki Haley • 25%
Donald Trump • 25%
Joe Biden • 25%
Kamala Harris • 25%
Nikki Haley • 25%
Split between multiple candidates • 34%
Donald Trump • 25%
Joe Biden • 25%
Kamala Harris • 25%
Nikki Haley • 25%
Kamala Harris • 25%
Donald Trump • 25%
Tie • 25%
Other • 25%
Trump wins majority • 33%
Harris wins majority • 33%
Split evenly • 34%