Loading...
Market
Percentage of Women, Children, and Elderly in Future Gaza Death Toll Studies by End of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Less than 50% • 25%
50% to 59% • 25%
60% to 69% • 25%
70% or more • 25%
Future studies published in credible medical or academic journals
Story
Lancet Study Estimates 64,260 Traumatic Injury Deaths in Gaza, 40% Higher Than Reported
Jan 10, 2025, 10:47 AM
A study published in The Lancet medical journal estimates that the death toll in Gaza during the first nine months of the Israel-Hamas war was around 40 percent higher than the figures recorded by the Palestinian territory's health ministry. The research, conducted by academics from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and Yale University, suggests that approximately 64,260 people died from traumatic injuries between October 2023 and June 2024, compared to the 37,877 deaths reported by the health ministry. The study utilized a statistical method known as 'capture-recapture' analysis, which involved cross-referencing data from hospital morgue records, an online survey, and social media obituaries. The discrepancy between the reported and estimated figures is attributed to the destruction of healthcare infrastructure in Gaza, which has impaired the ability to accurately count the dead. The study also found that 59% of the deaths were among women, children, and the elderly, representing about 3% of Gaza's population. By October 2024, the total number of deaths from traumatic injuries is estimated to have exceeded 70,000.
View original story
Similar markets
70% or more • 25%
60% to 69% • 25%
50% to 59% • 25%
Less than 50% • 25%
Less than 50% • 25%
50% to 59% • 25%
70% or more • 25%
60% to 69% • 25%
50% to 60% • 25%
More than 70% • 25%
60% to 70% • 25%
Less than 50% • 25%
Survey-based estimation • 25%
Official health records • 25%
Capture-recapture • 25%
Other • 25%
50,000 to 60,000 • 25%
60,000 to 70,000 • 25%
More than 70,000 • 25%
Less than 50,000 • 25%
50,000 to 60,000 • 25%
More than 70,000 • 25%
60,001 to 70,000 • 25%
Less than 50,000 • 25%
Other • 25%
Human Rights Watch • 25%
United Nations • 25%
World Health Organization • 25%
Figures found partially inflated • 25%
No conclusive evidence • 25%
Figures found largely inflated • 25%
Figures confirmed as accurate • 25%
300 or more • 25%
Less than 100 • 25%
100 to 199 • 25%
200 to 299 • 25%