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Lancet Study Estimates 64,260 Traumatic Injury Deaths in Gaza, 40% Higher Than Reported

Jan 10, 2025, 10:47 AM

A study published in The Lancet medical journal estimates that the death toll in Gaza during the first nine months of the Israel-Hamas war was around 40 percent higher than the figures recorded by the Palestinian territory's health ministry. The research, conducted by academics from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and Yale University, suggests that approximately 64,260 people died from traumatic injuries between October 2023 and June 2024, compared to the 37,877 deaths reported by the health ministry. The study utilized a statistical method known as 'capture-recapture' analysis, which involved cross-referencing data from hospital morgue records, an online survey, and social media obituaries. The discrepancy between the reported and estimated figures is attributed to the destruction of healthcare infrastructure in Gaza, which has impaired the ability to accurately count the dead. The study also found that 59% of the deaths were among women, children, and the elderly, representing about 3% of Gaza's population. By October 2024, the total number of deaths from traumatic injuries is estimated to have exceeded 70,000.