Loading...
Market
What will be the proportion of deaths among women, children, and elderly in Gaza for Oct 2023 - June 2024 by end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Less than 50% • 25%
50% to 60% • 25%
60% to 70% • 25%
More than 70% • 25%
Studies or reports from international organizations or research institutions
Story
Study Estimates Gaza Death Toll at 64,260, Suggests Over 70,000 Total Deaths
Jan 10, 2025, 06:38 AM
A new study published in The Lancet journal estimates that the death toll in Gaza due to traumatic injuries from October 7, 2023, to June 30, 2024, was significantly higher than previously reported, with an estimated 64,260 deaths. This figure represents a 41% underreporting compared to the 37,877 deaths recorded by the Palestinian Ministry of Health during the same period. The study, conducted by researchers from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine and other institutions, used the 'capture-recapture' method to estimate the death toll. It found that 59% of the deaths were among women, children, and the elderly. The analysis suggests that by October 2024, the total number of deaths due to violence in Gaza could have exceeded 70,000. The discrepancy in numbers is attributed to the collapse of Gaza's healthcare infrastructure, which has hindered accurate reporting.
View original story
Similar markets
Less than 50% • 25%
60% to 69% • 25%
50% to 59% • 25%
70% or more • 25%
50% to 59% • 25%
Less than 50% • 25%
70% or more • 25%
60% to 69% • 25%
50% to 59% • 25%
60% to 69% • 25%
70% or more • 25%
Less than 50% • 25%
60,001 to 70,000 • 25%
50,000 to 60,000 • 25%
Less than 50,000 • 25%
More than 70,000 • 25%
Less than 70,000 • 25%
70,000 to 80,000 • 25%
80,001 to 90,000 • 25%
More than 90,000 • 25%
Other • 25%
Capture-recapture • 25%
Survey-based estimation • 25%
Official health records • 25%
200 to 299 • 25%
Less than 100 • 25%
100 to 199 • 25%
300 or more • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Significant improvement • 25%
Moderate improvement • 25%
No change • 25%
Worsening conditions • 25%
50,000 to 60,000 • 25%
More than 70,000 • 25%
60,001 to 70,000 • 25%
Less than 50,000 • 25%
United Nations • 25%
World Health Organization • 25%
Other • 25%
Human Rights Watch • 25%