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Next major study on Gaza death toll published by which organization by end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
World Health Organization • 25%
United Nations • 25%
Human Rights Watch • 25%
Other • 25%
Publication of a study in a reputable journal or by an official organization
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Lancet Study Estimates Gaza Death Toll 41% Higher at 64,260 in First Nine Months of War
Jan 10, 2025, 05:48 AM
A study published in The Lancet medical journal estimates that the death toll in Gaza during the first nine months of the war with Israel was around 41 percent higher than initially recorded by the Palestinian health ministry. The research, conducted by academics from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) and Yale University, suggests that the actual number of deaths from traumatic injuries between October 2023 and June 2024 was approximately 64,260, compared to the 37,877 reported by the health ministry. The study indicates that about 3 percent of Gaza's pre-war population, or roughly one in every 35 inhabitants, died due to violence, with 59 percent of the victims being women, children, and the elderly.
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United Nations • 25%
World Health Organization • 25%
Other • 25%
Another Academic Institution • 25%
Other • 25%
Capture-recapture • 25%
Survey-based estimation • 25%
Official health records • 25%
Less than 70,000 • 25%
70,000 to 80,000 • 25%
More than 90,000 • 25%
80,001 to 90,000 • 25%
No conclusive evidence • 25%
Figures confirmed as accurate • 25%
Figures found partially inflated • 25%
Figures found largely inflated • 25%
Medical supply shortages • 25%
Infrastructure rebuilding • 25%
Public health risks • 25%
Other • 25%
No conclusion reached • 25%
Figures confirmed accurate • 25%
Figures significantly inflated • 25%
Figures partially inflated • 25%
60,000 to 70,000 • 25%
Less than 50,000 • 25%
More than 70,000 • 25%
50,000 to 60,000 • 25%