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PA Control of Jenin by June 30, 2025?
2
Palestinian Authority•PA•Jenin•Palestinian Islamic Jihad•Hamas•Iran•United States•Mike Fenzel•Israel•Egypt•Jordan•Saudi Arabia•Syria•Biden•Trump
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Reports from international observers or major news outlets
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US Seeks Israeli Approval for Urgent Military Aid to PA Amid Jenin Operation Against Armed Factions
Dec 15, 2024, 06:18 PM
The Palestinian Authority (PA) has launched a significant security operation in Jenin, aimed at regaining control over the city and its refugee camp from armed factions, including militants affiliated with Palestinian Islamic Jihad and Hamas, reportedly funded by Iran. The operation, described as a 'moment of victory or defeat' for the PA, has seen intense clashes, resulting in casualties on both sides. Amid this operation, the United States, through General Mike Fenzel, has requested Israel's approval to provide urgent military aid to the PA's security forces. This aid includes ammunition, helmets, bulletproof vests, communication devices, night vision equipment, bomb disposal suits, and armored vehicles. The request comes as the PA's control in Jenin weakens, with local militants taking over the refugee camp. The operation has been supported by Egypt, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia, who fear a potential Islamist takeover similar to the situation in Syria. The Biden administration and incoming Trump administration have been briefed on the operation.
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PA regains full control • 25%
Continued conflict with no clear control • 25%
Militants retain control • 25%
Negotiated settlement reached • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Increased IDF presence • 25%
Decreased IDF presence • 25%
Increased Hamas activity • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Increased sanctions • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Peace talks initiated • 25%
Palestinian Authority • 25%
Hamas • 25%
Other militant groups • 25%
No clear control • 25%
