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Market
Outcome of U.S. airstrikes on Houthi targets by June 30, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Significant degradation of Houthi capabilities • 25%
Minor impact on Houthi capabilities • 25%
No measurable impact on Houthi capabilities • 25%
Houthi capabilities strengthened • 25%
Reports from U.S. Central Command or credible international news agencies
Story
U.S. Strikes Houthi Missile Sites in Sanaa; Intercepts Drones Over Red Sea
Dec 21, 2024, 09:18 PM
On December 21, 2024, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) announced that it conducted precision airstrikes against Iranian-backed Houthi targets in Sanaa, Yemen. The strikes targeted a missile storage facility and a command-and-control center operated by the Houthis, utilizing F/A-18 Hornet fighter jets. During the operation, CENTCOM forces also intercepted and shot down multiple Houthi drones and an anti-ship cruise missile over the Red Sea. The strikes aimed to disrupt and degrade the Houthis' ability to carry out attacks on U.S. Navy ships and address threats to navigation in the Red Sea.
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Continued escalation • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Houthi retaliation • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Increased military tension • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations initiated • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Significant reduction in Houthi capabilities • 25%
No significant change in Houthi capabilities • 25%
Increase in Houthi military actions • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Significant reduction in Houthi capabilities • 25%
Minor impact on Houthi capabilities • 25%
No discernible impact • 25%
Increased Houthi retaliation • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Continued hostilities • 25%
Increased US military involvement • 25%
Withdrawal of US forces • 25%
Houthi military capabilities significantly reduced • 25%
No significant change in Houthi capabilities • 25%
Increased regional conflict • 25%
Ceasefire or peace negotiations initiated • 25%
