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Outcome of Trump's efforts on Ukraine conflict by January 20, 2026
2
Ukrainian•Volodymyr Zelensky•US•Donald Trump•Russia•Zelensky•Trump•Russian•Vladimir Putin•Russian Federation
Resolution / Starting Odds
Conflict ends • 25%
Conflict de-escalates • 25%
Status quo remains • 25%
Conflict escalates • 25%
Official announcements from the White House, Ukrainian government, or Russian government; reports from international news agencies
Story
Zelensky: Trump Could Be Decisive in Ending War, Stopping Putin
Jan 3, 2025, 08:29 AM
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, in an interview aired on Thursday, expressed hope that US President-elect Donald Trump's unpredictability could help end the nearly three-year war with Russia. Zelensky said that Trump could be 'decisive' in the outcome of the conflict and could help stop Russian President Vladimir Putin. He described Trump as 'strong and unpredictable' and stated, 'I would very much like President Trump's unpredictability to be directed primarily toward the Russian Federation.' Trump, who will be inaugurated on January 20, has previously claimed he would end the war 'in 24 hours.'
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Escalation of conflict • 25%
Conflict continues • 25%
Peace agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire declared • 25%
No significant progress • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
Successful ceasefire agreement • 25%
Ongoing negotiations without resolution • 25%
Ceasefire achieved • 25%
No ceasefire, talks ongoing • 25%
Talks failed • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ongoing negotiations without agreement • 25%
Successful agreement reached • 25%
No negotiations initiated • 25%
Negotiations failed • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
Conflict ends with peace agreement • 25%
Significant reduction in hostilities • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Proposals accepted • 25%
No decision • 25%
Proposals modified • 25%
Proposals rejected • 25%
Full peace treaty • 25%
Other diplomatic resolution • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
No agreement • 25%
No agreement, continued negotiations • 25%
Agreement reached • 25%
No agreement, talks break down • 25%
Meeting postponed or canceled • 25%
Military support to Ukraine • 25%
Economic sanctions on Russia • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
Non-intervention • 25%
Positively impacts resolution • 25%
No comment • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Negatively impacts resolution • 25%
Diplomatic tensions • 25%
Strengthened military support • 25%
Reduced military support • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Meeting occurs and results in peace agreement • 25%
Meeting does not occur • 25%
Meeting occurs but escalates conflict • 25%
Meeting occurs without peace agreement • 25%