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Outcome of Standoff at President Yoon's Residence by Jan 31, 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Peaceful resolution • 25%
Use of force • 25%
Continued standoff • 25%
Other • 25%
Reports from major news outlets or official statements from South Korean authorities
Story
Military Blocks Arrest of Impeached South Korean President Yoon After Seven-Hour Standoff
Jan 3, 2025, 05:16 AM
South Korean investigators from the anti-corruption agency attempted to arrest impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol at his residence over his failed martial law bid, but were blocked by a military unit inside the official residence compound, leading to a tense seven-hour standoff. Yoon's lawyer called the arrest warrant 'illegal and invalid,' threatening legal action against attempts to detain him. Approximately 2,700 police officers were involved in the operation. Hundreds of supporters gathered outside his residence in Seoul during the standoff, vowing to protect him from arrest. Ultimately, authorities suspended their attempt to detain the president due to safety concerns.
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Flees the country • 25%
Arrested • 25%
Voluntarily surrenders • 25%
Standoff continues • 25%
Peaceful resolution • 25%
Extended standoff • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Forcible arrest • 25%
Successful arrest • 25%
Arrest attempt called off • 25%
Arrest delayed • 25%
Arrest blocked by security • 25%
Protests lead to President Yoon's resignation • 25%
Protests lead to new government policies • 25%
Protests escalate into larger national movement • 25%
Protests subside with no major change • 25%
Protests intensify • 25%
Yoon resigns • 25%
Government crackdown • 25%
Protests dissipate • 25%
Successfully detained • 25%
Still at large • 25%
Flees the country • 25%
Voluntarily surrenders • 25%
Martial law revoked • 25%
Martial law upheld and funds remain blocked • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Funds unblocked • 25%
Peaceful resolution • 25%
Violence or unrest • 25%
Government concession • 25%
Protesters disband without resolution • 25%
Warrant expires without arrest • 25%
Yoon is arrested • 25%
New legal action delays arrest • 25%
Other • 25%
President Yoon not arrested, but investigation continues • 25%
Resolution overturned • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
President Yoon arrested • 25%
