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Outcome of protests over Yoon's arrest by January 31, 2025
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Protests lead to Yoon's arrest • 25%
Protests lead to warrant extension • 25%
Protests lead to no change • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official reports from South Korean authorities or credible media coverage
Story
Court Rejects Yoon's Objection as Arrest Warrant Nears Expiry Amid Protests
Jan 5, 2025, 12:47 PM
South Korean investigators have made multiple attempts to arrest impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol following his suspension after a failed attempt to impose martial law in December. Efforts to detain Yoon have been met with resistance from his presidential security team, which blocked prosecutors during a six-hour standoff at his residence in Seoul. The Anti-Corruption Investigation Office for High-Ranking Officials (CIO) has requested that Acting President Choi Sang-mok order the presidential security service to comply with the arrest warrant. As the warrant's expiration looms on Monday night, thousands of protesters have braved heavy snowfall in Seoul, rallying both for and against Yoon's arrest. On Sunday, a South Korean court dismissed Yoon's objection to the execution of the detention warrant. Investigators have handed over the execution of the warrant to the police and requested an extension of the warrant's execution period in an effort to detain Yoon before it expires.
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Peaceful resolution • 25%
Violence or unrest • 25%
Government concession • 25%
Protesters disband without resolution • 25%
Protests intensify • 25%
Protests dissipate • 25%
Government crackdown • 25%
Yoon resigns • 25%
Protests lead to President Yoon's resignation • 25%
Protests escalate into larger national movement • 25%
Protests lead to new government policies • 25%
Protests subside with no major change • 25%
President Yoon resigns • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Martial law lifted, Yoon remains • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Protests end • 25%
Protests escalate • 25%
Protests diminish • 25%
Protests continue • 25%
Pro-Yoon protests prevail • 25%
Anti-Yoon protests prevail • 25%
Protests remain evenly matched • 25%
Protests dissipate • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Yoon remains free pending appeal • 25%
Warrant is revoked • 25%
Yoon is arrested • 25%
Major protests in support of Yoon • 25%
Major protests against Yoon • 25%
Mixed reactions • 25%
No significant public reaction • 25%
Arrest executed with PSS interference • 25%
Arrest executed without incident • 25%
Arrest not executed by deadline • 25%
Arrest warrant invalidated • 25%
Protests Subside • 25%
Protests Intensify • 25%
No Significant Change • 25%
Protests End • 25%
Warrant overturned • 25%
Case dismissed • 25%
Warrant modified • 25%
Warrant upheld • 25%