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Outcome of international mediation in the Israel-Hamas conflict by December 2024
5
Israel Defense Forces•IDF•Shin Bet•Israel Security Agency•Naeem Ghoul•Hamas•Shati Battalion•Ghoul•Israel•Noa Marciano•Marciano•Shifa Hospital•Gaza
Resolution / Starting Odds
Successful ceasefire • 33%
Temporary truce • 33%
No agreement reached • 34%
Major international news outlets (e.g., BBC, CNN)
Story
IDF and Shin Bet Eliminate Senior Hamas Operative in Gaza on Friday
May 12, 2024, 03:19 PM
On Friday, a coordinated operation by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and the Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency) resulted in the elimination of Naeem Ghoul, a senior Hamas operative in the Shati Battalion. Ghoul was directly involved in rocket attacks against Israel and played a critical role in the captivity of IDF Corporal Noa Marciano, who was abducted on October 7th. Marciano was tragically murdered by terrorists at the Shifa Hospital in Gaza. The operation marks a significant action against Hamas' military capabilities in the region.
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Successful • 33%
Partially Successful • 34%
Unsuccessful • 33%
Israeli victory • 25%
Hamas maintains control • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Complete Resolution • 34%
Partial Resolution • 33%
No Resolution • 33%
Ceasefire • 33%
Escalation of conflict • 33%
Status quo • 34%
Ceasefire with negotiations ongoing • 25%
Complete ceasefire and hostages released • 25%
Conflict ongoing • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
New ceasefire agreement • 33%
Prisoner exchange deal • 33%
No significant agreement • 33%
Ceasefire • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Major escalation • 25%
Resolution agreement • 25%
UN intervention • 33%
US intervention • 33%
No international intervention • 33%
Ceasefire agreed • 25%
Hostages released • 25%
Prolonged conflict • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Ceasefire extended • 33%
Ceasefire ended • 33%
Ceasefire on hold • 33%
Decisive IDF victory • 33%
Stalemate • 33%
Hamas retains control • 34%
Ceasefire accepted by all parties • 33%
Ceasefire rejected by Israel • 33%
Ceasefire rejected by Hamas • 33%