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What will be the success level of mediation efforts in the Gaza conflict by December 31, 2024?
5
Resolution / Starting Odds
Complete Resolution • 34%
Partial Resolution • 33%
No Resolution • 33%
Official announcements from involved parties and international observers
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On June 3, 2024, Biden Urges Qatar Emir to Secure Hamas' Acceptance of Hostage-Ceasefire Deal
Jun 3, 2024, 07:10 PM
On June 3, 2024, President Joe Biden engaged in discussions with the Emir of Qatar regarding a potential ceasefire and hostage deal in Gaza. According to a White House statement, Biden urged the Emir to use all appropriate measures to secure Hamas' acceptance of the deal, emphasizing that Hamas' ongoing refusal to release hostages would only prolong the conflict. Biden confirmed that Israel is ready to move forward with the terms currently offered to Hamas, describing this as the best possible opportunity for an agreement. The White House highlighted that Hamas is now the only obstacle to achieving a complete ceasefire and relief for the people of Gaza.
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Similar markets
Successful • 33%
Partially Successful • 34%
Unsuccessful • 33%
Ceasefire with negotiations ongoing • 25%
Complete ceasefire and hostages released • 25%
Conflict ongoing • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Successful ceasefire • 33%
Temporary truce • 33%
No agreement reached • 34%
Ceasefire • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Major escalation • 25%
Resolution agreement • 25%
Fully implemented • 25%
Partially implemented • 25%
Not implemented • 25%
Ceasefire broken • 25%
Full implementation • 33%
Partial implementation • 33%
No implementation • 33%
Significant progress made • 33%
Moderate progress made • 33%
No significant progress • 34%
New ceasefire agreement • 33%
Prisoner exchange deal • 33%
No significant agreement • 33%
Successful truce • 25%
Partial agreement • 25%
Negotiations fail • 25%
Increase in hostilities • 25%