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Outcome of international diplomatic interventions regarding Israel-Hezbollah conflict by end of 2024?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Increased sanctions on Israel • 25%
Increased sanctions on Hezbollah • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Verified news reports from major international news organizations and official statements from international bodies such as the United Nations
Story
Israeli Strikes on Lebanon Kill 274, Including 21 Children, Injure Over 1,000
Sep 23, 2024, 12:51 PM
The Israeli military conducted a significant airstrike campaign on Monday, targeting 300 sites across Lebanon, primarily directed at Hezbollah positions. The Lebanese Health Ministry reported that the death toll has risen to 274, with over 1,000 injured, including 21 children, 39 women, and two medics. The strikes represent the deadliest day of conflict since the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war. The Israeli Defense Forces have warned of an expanded airstrike campaign and advised civilians in Hezbollah-operated areas to evacuate.
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Successful ceasefire • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Peace negotiations initiated • 25%
Increased sanctions on Hezbollah • 25%
Peace agreement reached • 25%
Conflict escalates • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Peace agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
No significant progress • 25%
Conflict escalates • 25%
Increased sanctions on Hezbollah • 25%
Increased sanctions on Israel • 25%
Calls for peace talks • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Israel victory • 33%
Hezbollah victory • 33%
Stalemate/No clear victor • 33%
Continued skirmishes • 25%
Full-scale war • 25%
Resolution through diplomatic means • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Conflict continues with no resolution • 25%
Hezbollah significantly weakened • 25%
Israeli withdrawal without agreement • 25%
Ceasefire • 25%
Escalation to wider regional conflict • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Peace agreement • 25%
Other • 25%
Successful ceasefire • 25%
Temporary truce • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Other • 25%
Peace agreement reached • 33%
Ceasefire without agreement • 33%
No agreement, continued conflict • 33%
Full-scale war • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Stalemate with ongoing skirmishes • 25%
Other • 25%
UN imposes sanctions • 25%
NATO intervenes • 25%
EU imposes sanctions • 25%
No significant international action • 25%
Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
Full-scale War • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Other • 25%
Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
Continued Hostilities • 25%
Full-Scale War • 25%
Other • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Continued low-level skirmishes • 25%
Other • 25%