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Israeli Strikes on Lebanon Kill 274, Including 21 Children, Injure Over 1,000

Sep 23, 2024, 12:51 PM

The Israeli military conducted a significant airstrike campaign on Monday, targeting 300 sites across Lebanon, primarily directed at Hezbollah positions. The Lebanese Health Ministry reported that the death toll has risen to 274, with over 1,000 injured, including 21 children, 39 women, and two medics. The strikes represent the deadliest day of conflict since the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war. The Israeli Defense Forces have warned of an expanded airstrike campaign and advised civilians in Hezbollah-operated areas to evacuate.

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Will a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah be reached by November 30, 2024?

Israeli military•Lebanon•Hezbollah•Lebanese Health Ministry•Israeli Defense Forces

Resolution / Starting Odds

Yes • 50%

No • 50%

Verified news reports from major international news organizations such as Reuters, BBC, or Al Jazeera

Will Hezbollah retaliate against Israel with a significant attack by end of 2024?

Israeli military•Lebanon•Hezbollah•Lebanese Health Ministry•Israeli Defense Forces

Resolution / Starting Odds

No • 50%

Yes • 50%

Verified news reports from major international news organizations such as Reuters, BBC, or Al Jazeera

Will Israel conduct another major airstrike campaign in Lebanon by end of 2024?

Israeli military•Lebanon•Hezbollah•Lebanese Health Ministry•Israeli Defense Forces

Resolution / Starting Odds

No • 50%

Yes • 50%

Verified news reports from major international news organizations such as Reuters, BBC, or Al Jazeera

Change in control of southern Lebanon by end of 2024?

Israeli military•Lebanon•Hezbollah•Lebanese Health Ministry•Israeli Defense Forces

Resolution / Starting Odds

Remains under Hezbollah control • 25%

Controlled by a new entity • 25%

Controlled by Israeli forces • 25%

Controlled by Lebanese government • 25%

Verified news reports from major international news organizations and official statements from the Israeli and Lebanese governments

Number of casualties from Israeli airstrikes on Lebanon by end of 2024?

Israeli military•Lebanon•Hezbollah•Lebanese Health Ministry•Israeli Defense Forces

Resolution / Starting Odds

More than 700 • 25%

Less than 300 • 25%

300-500 • 25%

501-700 • 25%

Official reports from the Lebanese Health Ministry or verified news reports from major international news organizations

Outcome of international diplomatic interventions regarding Israel-Hezbollah conflict by end of 2024?

Israeli military•Lebanon•Hezbollah•Lebanese Health Ministry•Israeli Defense Forces

Resolution / Starting Odds

Ceasefire agreement • 25%

Increased sanctions on Israel • 25%

Increased sanctions on Hezbollah • 25%

No significant change • 25%

Verified news reports from major international news organizations and official statements from international bodies such as the United Nations