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Outcome of Hamas's response to Ben-Gvir's Al-Aqsa visit by Mar 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Increased rhetoric • 25%
Calls for international intervention • 25%
Direct action or conflict • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Official statements from Hamas and subsequent actions reported by major news outlets
Story
Israeli Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir Enters Al-Aqsa Mosque Amid Hanukkah Celebrations, Drawing Hamas Condemnation and Heightened Tensions
Dec 26, 2024, 07:21 AM
On December 26, 2024, Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir entered the Al-Aqsa Mosque compound in Jerusalem, coinciding with the Jewish festival of Hanukkah. This visit, which included prayers at the Temple Mount, has drawn criticism and heightened tensions in the region. Ben-Gvir's actions were reportedly supported by heavily armed Israeli forces, and they have sparked condemnation from Hamas, which described the incursion as a serious violation and a reflection of the extremist government's escalation against the mosque and its Islamic identity. Reports indicated that groups of Israeli settlers also entered the mosque compound during this time, performing religious rituals under the protection of Israeli security forces.
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Hostages remain in captivity • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Hostages harmed or neutralized • 25%
Hostages successfully rescued • 25%
Only rocket attacks ceased • 25%
Neither demands met • 25%
Hostages released and rocket attacks ceased • 25%
Only hostages released • 25%
Mediation talks ongoing • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
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Continued military escalation • 25%
Increase diplomatic efforts • 25%
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No significant change • 25%
Increase military actions • 25%
Other • 25%
Peace negotiations • 25%
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Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Hamas retains capabilities • 25%
Hamas significantly weakened • 25%
Increased hostilities • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Diplomatic measures • 25%
Increased military presence • 25%
Other • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Negotiations continue with no agreement • 25%
Negotiations break down completely • 25%
Agreement reached and hostages exchanged • 25%