Market
Will U.S. and Mexico agree on immigration policy changes by June 30, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official announcements from U.S. and Mexican governments, verified news sources
Story
Mexico Denies U.S. Deportation Flight to Guatemala on Thursday, Stalls Trump's Immigration Plan
Jan 24, 2025, 10:38 PM
Mexico has denied a U.S. military plane permission to land on Thursday, thwarting the Trump administration's efforts to deport immigrants to the country. The incident involved a flight that was part of a broader initiative to deport immigrants. Two other flights successfully deported about 80 immigrants each to Guatemala, but the flight intended for Mexico was canceled after Mexican authorities refused to grant landing permission. This action has been attributed to rising tensions between the U.S. and Mexico, exacerbated by President Donald Trump's immigration policies, including threats of tariffs and the reinstatement of the 'remain in Mexico' policy.
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Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Increased cooperation • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Reduced cooperation • 25%
Policy change by U.S. • 25%
Policy change by Mexico • 25%
Resolution through negotiation • 25%
Continued tensions • 25%
Agreement reached • 25%
Other • 25%
Flights resume with conditions • 25%
No agreement • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Other Outcome • 25%
Positive Engagement • 25%
Neutral Stance • 25%
Negative Response • 25%
Other • 25%
Strained Relations • 25%
Improved Cooperation • 25%
No Significant Change • 25%