Market
Will there be reports of breaches of safety for Kurds in Aleppo by HTS by February 2025?
3
HTS•Administration of Military Operations•SDF•Kurdish•Sheikh Maqsoud•Aleppo•Syria•Syrian regime•Iranian•Kurds•Syrian
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Reports from human rights organizations or credible news agencies
Story
HTS Offers US-Backed SDF Safe Passage to Evacuate Kurdish Neighborhoods in Aleppo
Dec 1, 2024, 03:59 PM
Syrian rebel groups, led by Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and its Administration of Military Operations, have issued an ultimatum to the US-backed Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to evacuate the Kurdish-majority neighborhoods of Sheikh Maqsoud and Al-Ashrafiyah in Aleppo. HTS has promised safe passage for the SDF to move to northeastern Syria with their weapons intact, while also ensuring the protection of the Kurdish population in Aleppo. The rebels have emphasized that their fight is against the Syrian regime and Iranian proxy militias, not the SDF, and have committed to treating Kurds as an integral part of Syrian society.
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Sanctions or military action • 25%
Continued isolation • 25%
Recognition by major powers • 25%
Other diplomatic response • 25%
HTS gains significant territory • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Syrian regime regains control • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
HTS solidifies control • 25%
Peace agreement reached • 25%
Prolonged stalemate • 25%
HTS loses control • 25%
Sanctions imposed • 25%
Full support • 25%
Conditional support • 25%
No support • 25%
Successful monitoring and cooperation • 25%
Partial success • 25%
No cooperation • 25%
Monitoring efforts abandoned • 25%