Market
How will the Syrian regime respond to HTS's ultimatum by April 2025?
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HTS•Administration of Military Operations•SDF•Kurdish•Sheikh Maqsoud•Aleppo•Syria•Syrian regime•Iranian•Kurds•Syrian
Resolution / Starting Odds
No response • 25%
Condemnation of HTS • 25%
Military action against HTS • 25%
Support for SDF • 25%
Statements from the Syrian government or credible news reports
Story
HTS Offers US-Backed SDF Safe Passage to Evacuate Kurdish Neighborhoods in Aleppo
Dec 1, 2024, 03:59 PM
Syrian rebel groups, led by Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and its Administration of Military Operations, have issued an ultimatum to the US-backed Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to evacuate the Kurdish-majority neighborhoods of Sheikh Maqsoud and Al-Ashrafiyah in Aleppo. HTS has promised safe passage for the SDF to move to northeastern Syria with their weapons intact, while also ensuring the protection of the Kurdish population in Aleppo. The rebels have emphasized that their fight is against the Syrian regime and Iranian proxy militias, not the SDF, and have committed to treating Kurds as an integral part of Syrian society.
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Similar markets
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Sanctions or military action • 25%
Recognition by major powers • 25%
Continued isolation • 25%
Other diplomatic response • 25%
Full support • 25%
Sanctions imposed • 25%
No support • 25%
Conditional support • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Military intervention • 25%
Increased sanctions on HTS • 25%
Other • 25%
Official condemnation • 25%
Military action • 25%
No official response • 25%
Tribal governance model • 25%
No significant change • 25%
National Army formation • 25%
Federal governance model • 25%
