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Will the U.S. attribute Havana Syndrome to a foreign adversary by end of 2024?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official U.S. government statements or reports
Story
House CIA Subcommittee Suggests Foreign Adversary Behind Havana Syndrome, Criticizes Intel Community
Dec 5, 2024, 06:46 PM
The U.S. House Intelligence Subcommittee on the CIA has released an interim report suggesting that a foreign adversary is likely behind some of the Anomalous Health Incidents (AHIs), commonly known as Havana Syndrome. The report criticizes the U.S. Intelligence Community (IC) for allegedly hindering the subcommittee's investigation into these incidents. Despite previous claims by the IC that there was no evidence of foreign involvement, the subcommittee believes that foreign adversaries are responsible for some AHIs. This development marks a significant shift in the understanding of these mysterious health incidents affecting intelligence operatives and diplomats.
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No • 50%
Yes • 50%
China • 25%
Other • 25%
None identified • 25%
Russia • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Russia • 25%
China • 25%
Other • 25%
No acknowledgment • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
China • 25%
Other/None Identified • 25%
Cuba • 25%
Russia • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Another foreign adversary identified • 25%
Russia confirmed as perpetrator • 25%
Attacks deemed non-foreign • 25%
No conclusive perpetrator identified • 25%
Diplomatic Measures • 25%
No Significant Action • 25%
Military Posture Changes • 25%
Economic Sanctions • 25%
Foreign weapon confirmed • 25%
Natural causes • 25%
Other • 25%
Unknown cause • 25%