Market
Will the Pentagon change its assessment of the Oreshnik missile by March 31, 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official statements from the Pentagon or U.S. Department of Defense
Story
Ukraine Strikes Russian Targets with ATACMS Missiles; Russia Warns of Oreshnik Missile Retaliation
Dec 12, 2024, 12:00 AM
Ukraine has reportedly used US-supplied ATACMS long-range missiles to strike Russian military targets, including the Taganrog airfield in Russia's Rostov region and an oil depot in Bryansk. The Russian Defense Ministry confirmed the attacks and promised a response, potentially involving the use of the new 'Oreshnik' intermediate-range ballistic missile. Pentagon spokesperson Sabrina Singh indicated that Russia may launch another Oreshnik missile in the coming days but does not consider it a game-changer in the war.
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No change in nuclear doctrine • 25%
Formal reduction in nuclear arsenal • 25%
Increased reliance on hypersonic missiles • 25%
Other changes • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Other actions • 25%
Existing agreement revised • 25%
New agreement signed • 25%
No changes • 25%
