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What will be the outcome of U.S.-Russia discussions on missile use by March 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
No significant progress • 25%
Agreement on missile limitations • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Other • 25%
Official reports from U.S. State Department or Russian Foreign Ministry
Story
Ukraine Strikes Russian Targets with ATACMS Missiles; Russia Warns of Oreshnik Missile Retaliation
Dec 12, 2024, 12:00 AM
Ukraine has reportedly used US-supplied ATACMS long-range missiles to strike Russian military targets, including the Taganrog airfield in Russia's Rostov region and an oil depot in Bryansk. The Russian Defense Ministry confirmed the attacks and promised a response, potentially involving the use of the new 'Oreshnik' intermediate-range ballistic missile. Pentagon spokesperson Sabrina Singh indicated that Russia may launch another Oreshnik missile in the coming days but does not consider it a game-changer in the war.
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No agreement reached • 25%
Other • 25%
Agreement reached • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
No Agreement • 25%
Postponed Discussions • 25%
Escalated Tensions • 25%
Agreement Reached • 25%
Talks lead to de-escalation • 25%
No significant outcome • 25%
Talks result in new sanctions • 25%
Talks lead to increased tensions • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
New diplomatic initiatives • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
No official response • 25%
Other diplomatic resolution • 25%
Accepted by U.S. • 25%
Rejected by U.S. • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Decreased communications • 25%
No change • 25%
Increased communications • 25%
Temporary halt in communications • 25%
Challenge rejected • 25%
Challenge accepted but not conducted • 25%
Challenge accepted and conducted • 25%
No official response • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Improved relations without formal treaty • 25%
No significant progress • 25%
Relations worsen • 25%
New treaty signed • 25%
New agreement signed • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Normalization achieved • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Increased military aid to Ukraine • 25%
Increased sanctions on Russia • 25%