Market
Will Palestinian Authority undergo significant reforms by end of 2025?
2
United Arab Emirates•United States•Israel•Gaza•UAE•Palestinian Authority•Palestinian•Western•Hamas•Israeli•Benjamin Netanyahu
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official statements from Palestinian Authority or reports from credible news agencies
Story
UAE Discusses Provisional Government for Post-War Gaza with US and Israel, Focusing on Reformed Palestinian Authority and Peacekeeping
Jan 7, 2025, 09:52 AM
The United Arab Emirates has been engaging in discussions with the United States and Israel about the possibility of establishing a provisional government for Gaza following the conclusion of the ongoing conflict, which has lasted for 15 months. These talks, which have been conducted behind the scenes, focus on the UAE and the U.S., along with other nations, temporarily overseeing the governance, security, and reconstruction of Gaza until a reformed Palestinian Authority can assume control. The UAE has emphasized the necessity of significant reforms within the Palestinian Authority and the establishment of a credible roadmap towards an independent Palestinian state as prerequisites for their participation in any post-war plan. The discussions also include the potential use of private military contractors for peacekeeping missions in Gaza, a proposal that has raised concerns among Western nations due to past allegations against such forces. The reconstruction of Gaza is expected to cost tens of billions of dollars. Both the UAE and Israel oppose Hamas, the group responsible for initiating the war with an attack on October 7, 2023. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has criticized the conduct of Israel's military and has expressed reluctance to outline a specific vision for post-war Gaza.
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Political reforms • 25%
No significant reforms • 25%
Security reforms • 25%
Economic reforms • 25%
Partial reforms implemented • 25%
Significant reforms implemented • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No reforms implemented • 25%
No new leader appointed • 25%
Salam Fayyad • 25%
Mohammad Mustafa • 25%
Other candidate • 25%
Increased instability • 25%
Stable with no major changes • 25%
Strengthened through external support • 25%
Collapse of authority • 25%
No clear leadership change • 25%
Interim leadership established • 25%
New President elected • 25%
Mahmoud Abbas remains President • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Palestinian Authority takes control • 25%
New governing body formed • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Hamas remains in control • 25%