Market
Will Pakistan test a long-range missile capable of reaching the U.S. by June 30, 2025?
4
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Reports from international defense agencies or major news outlets confirming the missile test and its range
Story
U.S. Official Jon Finer Warns Pakistan's Long-Range Missiles Could Reach U.S., Calls It Emerging Threat After Sanctions
Dec 20, 2024, 04:27 AM
A senior White House official has stated that nuclear-armed Pakistan is advancing its long-range ballistic missile capabilities, which could potentially enable strikes beyond South Asia, including targets in the United States. Deputy National Security Adviser Jon Finer emphasized that this development raises serious concerns about Islamabad's intentions and has classified it as an 'emerging threat' to U.S. national security. This warning comes shortly after the U.S. imposed sanctions on Pakistan's state-owned missile development agency and three associated companies, highlighting ongoing tensions regarding Pakistan's missile program.
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No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Policy suspension • 25%
Policy reduction • 25%
Policy continuation • 25%
Policy expansion • 25%
Successful long-range test • 25%
Shift to short-range focus • 25%
Halted development • 25%
Continued development without test • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
Military deterrence measures • 25%
UN sanctions • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Deteriorating relations • 25%
Strategic partnership formed • 25%